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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced difficulties in the final phase, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd