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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.