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A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to learn from the alternative positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."