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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It often functions as a kind of apology. We regret we misjudged your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the largest turnaround wins the award. In practice, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or just the most shocking shock.

Yet this year's field is profoundly different. The list of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division winners fading and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. In an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this chaotic and fun year, he's facing five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to display his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

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