🔗 Share this article

Back in 2018, it took just eight words to energize a Labour conference demonstrating the party was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not precisely stirring rhetoric, the words were greeted with wild cheering as delegates rose in an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

In that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in working-class seats over the pro-European instincts of his party. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a political gambler who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he would later replace.

The Evolution in Position & Closed Debates

Since then, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue was resolved by the previous year’s national vote. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in key seats, despite polling evidence indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on Europe

Yet, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled Labour leader. While EU relations is no longer the boiling pot in UK politics, the cap which was tightly sealed for five years is beginning to rattle once more.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation that leaving the EU has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was his primary goal and is still his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal negotiated with the EU in 2024 offers economic benefits measured in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure & Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is among those trying to overcome long-standing Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme by which young people can travel between the UK and the EU for work or study.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly regarding the clear advantages of being in an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, last week voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.

Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, maintains the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal involves announce the start of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a new electoral mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts

Yet, Starmer has lately been damping it all down on the idea by warning rejoining an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the trade pacts with the US, which he views as signature achievements of his premiership.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. First, he believes any customs union agreement is now much harder because his ministers actively diverging from European rules across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Second, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced British officials that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals with Britain and are more focused on proving that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is seen by some influential figures in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to keep its distance from Europe.

An Alarming Strategy & Strategic Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying document claims Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” due to Muslim migration. It includes only one reference of the UK, found on a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in British politics to encourage the growth of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from concluding that this renders the US an undependable ally, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter & The Ghost of 2018

All of which brings us back to 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not an attempt for the leadership but simply an effort to keep open the possibility of remain being on the ballot paper. Indeed, in those days, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement of the kind he currently seems to reject.

But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office note that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would stand for the leadership, is part of a clutch of cabinet ministers signaling they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, insist she won’t discuss her position regarding a customs pact as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Obvious Danger and A Wise Reminder

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to occupy the space where most of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be wise of him to recall the impact that a short phrase had for him in 2018. There are options for a major proposal on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, before someone else adopt them as their own.